Bond Yields Are Steering the Volatility in CRE Values

Movements in bond yields are now the dominant force behind commercial real estate pricing—often outweighing the influence of GDP growth or inflation, especially in markets with tight cap rates. Bond yields as the main driver: Oxford Economics research shows that changes in yields exert a much stronger pull on valuations than traditional macro factors. For…

CBRE’s midyear broker survey—drawing from over 200 industry professionals—suggests that cap rates may have reached their ceiling in early 2025, despite the turbulence in Treasury yields. Market metrics: The 10-year Treasury yield swung widely this year, starting at 4.79% in January, dipping to 4.01% by April, and ending midyear at 4.24%. Even with that volatility,…

The commercial real estate (CRE) markets have gone through some pretty significant changes over the last few years. Since early 2020, the industry has faced wave after wave of disruption — and as we move deeper into 2025, the market continues to evolve in ways that investors, developers, and lenders need to pay close attention…